"Bosnia and Herzegovina is like a bicycle," says Lord (Paddy) Ashdown, who served as the country's UN high representative between 2002 and 2006. "If it is in constant motion, the chances of things going wrong are avoidable. As long as there is momentum. If it stops or is pedalled backwards, that is when I fear the prevalent mood becomes one of pessimism. Then there is the risk that it turns in on itself. And it has lost momentum.